In 2022, Russia transported about 20.35 bcm of natural gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system, according to ExPro calculations. This is the lowest level of transit during the independence of Ukraine since 1991.
Compared to the previous year, Russian gas transit volumes more than halved - from 41.6 bcm in 2021 to 20.35 bcm in 2022.
The sharp reduction in Russian gas supplies is directly related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the end of February 2022. Europe, having seen the actions of Russia, is gradually abandoning Russian gas, replacing it with gas from other sources LNG. In addition, Russia reduced gas supplies to "unfriendly countries" that refused to pay for gas in rubles. In general, Gazprom reduced gas supplies to Europe to the lowest level in Russian history in 2022.
It should be noted that under a long-term contract, Russia has booked 40 bcm of capacity for gas transit through Ukraine, but it has used only half of the booked capacity. The long-term contract concluded for 2020-2024 on the terms of "ship or pay" stipulates that Russia must pay for the entire booked volume.
As a result of the occupation of the Luhansk region, Ukraine temporarily lost access to the Sokhranivka gas point, one of the two entry points to the Ukrainian gas pipeline through which Russian gas enters the system. GTS Operator of Ukraine LLC offered Russian Gazprom to transfer the entire volume from Sokhranivka to Sudja for free, but the Russian company refused and reduced the payment for transit. In this connection, Naftogaz of Ukraine NJSC turned to international arbitration.
In general, during 2022, Russia transported natural gas through Ukraine to 4 countries: Slovakia, Moldova, Poland, and Romania. Most gas was transported to Slovakia - almost 16.5 bcm, 40% less than in 2021. Also, 2.5 bcm of gas were transported to Moldova, 21% less than in 2021.
In addition, at the beginning of the year, there were deliveries of Russian gas to Poland - 1 bcm (-65%) and to Romania - 0.4 bcm (-10%). Still, since May, Russian gas has been delivered through Ukraine only to Slovakia and Moldova.
The long-term contract provides for the transportation of 40 bcm of natural gas from Russia through the Ukrainian GTS, but the probability of such volumes is practically zero. In addition, there is a threat of an attack by the Russian occupiers on the facilities of the Ukrainian GTS, as well as a complete stop of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine.
